Political Polls and Markets Predict the Presidential Race

Political Polls and Markets Predict the Presidential Race

With such a close presidential race, many would like to look to pollsters and their political crystal balls for predictions. But what stats are the most reli...

If you want to follow the presidential race on the prediction markets yourself, here are three links: 

Intrade;

Betfair, where to translate odds like 1.47 into a percentage, you divide 1.47 into 1 (about 68%); and finally 

IEM -- the Iowa Electronic Markets, where the current odds are in the two boxes on the lower right; Obama, above; Romney, below. Be advised, though, that Intrade and Betfair represent wagering on who becomes President. IEM betting is on who wins the popular vote.

Posted by Paul Solman October 12, 2012