Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.

Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all. »

Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.

Study: “History and Primary: The Obama Re-election.”

Who did it: Helmut Norpoth and Michael Bednarczuk (SUNY, Stony Brook University).

Study: Nowcasting and Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election: A Comparison of Methods and Examining the Effect of Race (paper not available; older explication here, latest prediction here)

Who did it: Michael S. Lewis-Beck (Iowa) and Charles P. Tien (Hunter College).

Study: Economic Conditions versus Trial-Heat Polls as Early Election Predictors

Who did it: Robert Erikson (Columbia) and Christopher Wlezien (Temple).

Study: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election

Who did it: Alan Abramowitz, Emory University.

Posted by Dylan Matthews on August 31, 2012 at 1:50 pm